Every NFL Thursday I will try using FTNBets.com’s tools and stats to kill the sports betting and scribble my favorite site, totals, or prop selections for the Thursday night game of the week. Some will win. Many will lose. Fade or follow? That is of course up to you. Here I am stacking greenbacks on Colts / Titans:
PAGE: Indianapolis ML (+112, DraftKings) – The Colts defense isn’t the ’85 Bears or ’00 Ravens, but it’s darn good. One of the league’s most humble stars, Darius Leonard is a tackle machine. His gap coverage combined with the skills of Grover Stewart and Anthony Walker – the pair have posted 32 combined run stops this season – is why Indy is among the leaders in several Rushing D categories. Name a “dive” and the chances are they will only show up a few inches. In the year, they have scored 3.12 yards per carry, 62.0 rush yards per game, and four ground scores for RBs. The Colts are equally rigid through the air, giving in 6.9 pass yards per game and 221.1 pass yards per game. Saddle them up and you could gallop into the circle of winners. Remember, Indy has taken seven of the last ten in the series straight out.
Player Prop 1: Jordan Wilkins OVER 31.5 Rush Yards (-118, William Hill) – Wisconsin product Jonathan Taylor emitted a stench on par with a Limburger block. Gets lazy compared to Wilkins in almost every major category, including YAC per attempt (JT: 2.11; JW: 3.22) and Missing Tackle Percentage (JT: 6.3%; JW: 27.7%) he just doesn’t live up to the hype. Ole Miss’ earlier standout fit better with Frank Reich’s power run scheme. That’s why he ordered double-digit touches for consecutive weeks. Tennessee has allowed rushers 4.5 yards per carry and 97.6 rush yards per game. If Wilkins receives another 9-11 broadcast, which is likely, he will dive over 32 meters. The OVER at 8.5 rush attempts at +115 is also a low hanging fruit.
Player Prop 2: Derrick Henry UNDER 90.5 Rush / Receiving Yards (-118, William Hill) – See Hole. Smash hole. See Josh Norman. Slide Josh Norman into the parallel universe. This is the running mantra of Tennessee Football Frankenstein. Henry, who is occupied by his 3.51 YAC per attempt, is a runaway beer truck. Get in his way and chances are you’ll end up in a hood ornament. Still, as explained above, Indy is up to the challenge. Kareem Hunt is the only rusher to exceed the proposed amount against her. Even Superman Dalvin Cook couldn’t. Henry loses occasional work on Jeremy McNichols and is almost absent in the passing game (10 receptions per year). It may take 25 transmissions to obscure 90.
Last week’s record: 2-2