Castles

NCAA Basketball – St. Peter @ Siena -4 (-110):

I’m very surprised at this line considering how these teams play and how they played in that particular place. Siena’s season is still young – they have only played six games due to COVID – but they are unbeaten and look like the best team on the Metro. Here, too, the efficiency indicators point to an important inequality, as Siena ranks 32nd in terms of offensive efficiency, compared with 274 for St. Peter, a gap that is too large for such a relatively short point spread.

I also look at St. Peter’s 1-5-1 Road ATS record and the fact that they did worse in the Road Doubleheaders’ first leg. This is also the possible return for Jalen Pickett from a hamstring injury that would cause this line to jump, but I like the Saints here without him too.

NCAA Basketball – Florida Gulf Coast @ Lipscomb -5.5 (-110):

We’re a long way from the Gulf Coast known for Dunk City – this team is really struggling right now. The Eagles have had a COVID hiatus, losing twice at home to D1 newcomers Bellarmine, a team that beat Lipscomb twice on the road. The Gulf Coast has had a tough time with major efficiency crimes, and that’s exactly what Lipscomb has been doing recently. In its last three games, it has scored 1,142 points per possession, one of the highest in the country.

There is also a zigzag factor to consider here. The bison scored an average of 19 points better in the first leg of their two home doubles. I see the Gulf Coast struggling to keep up and a strong offensive from Lipscomb leading to a comfortable win.

NCAA basketball – rice / UAB below 141.5 (-110):

I usually don’t like betting on underwear. But luckily, all tickets are redeemed the same and everything about this game screams below. These are two of the best under teams in the country, with UAB going under 8-2-1 and Rice going under 9-3. In fact, UAB didn’t top that number against nine direct D1 opponents.

It’s no wonder when you dig deeper into team metrics. UAB is the best defensive efficiency team in the country and the seventh highest percentage of effective field targets of the opponent. That total seems too reflective of the games Rice played against opponents from the non-D1 and Southland Conference who increased their scores. After they finally competed with a slow and poorly shooting Old Dominion team last weekend, both games ended well under.

UAB will dictate the pace on this one, and we should see one more grind-it-out matter.

Degenerate

NCAA Basketball – Milwaukee @ Cleveland State -3.5 (-110)

It’s been a remarkable run for Cleveland State through the Horizon League so far, and I think it continues here against Milwaukee. The Vikings are 8-2 ATS in league play, including four overall wins as underdogs. It doesn’t look like a coincidence either, as this team dated both Toledo and the state of Ohio in street competitions earlier in the season.

Milwaukee was finally exposed last week when it lost two home games to Purdue-Fort Wayne, the first team they’ve faced that can actually shoot. Cleveland State will make it difficult for them defensively, however, as they only allow 61 PPG in home games at conferences. I just don’t think the odds makers have found out Cleveland State is a legitimate contender for the Horizon title. So this is a great place to buy cheap for a short price.

Tiny Nick has had 111-61 ATS (+ 49.1 units) on his locks since joining Zone Coverage.

Every day he offers his locks and degenerate picks. Castles are the games he is sure of. Degenerate are fun but riskier picks.