Castles

NCAA Basketball – Georgia Tech +6.5 @ Duke (-110):

That game is headlining ESPN’s college plan today, which is funny because these two teams aren’t great.

It’s unreal that Duke is currently giving points to someone, especially a Georgia Tech team, who is better than most people think. The yellow jackets have four starters that shoot 40% or better from the depths. Striker Moses Wright is unstoppable in pick and roll and this team has been hot for the past week. They destroyed Clemson and almost knocked Virginia down on the street.

Meanwhile, Duke is the drug dealer who just can’t stop and it’s been expensive. The Blue Devils have the worst ATS record of any team that has played multiple games and missed the number by 9.3 points. This is the fourth worst edge in the country. In my opinion, it’s crazy to score two points worth two possessions with the team that finished 104th in offensive efficiency and 214th in defensive efficiency. So don’t let the Duke brand name fool you here.

NCAA Basketball – Oklahoma @ Texas -4 (-110):

I know this may seem confusing after taking Oklahoma vs KU (and the public) a few days ago, but that was home and I’m sold that this Texas team is real. Without Mac McClung’s ridiculous three to win the game, the Longhorns would really be rolling.

This is a street game for Oklahoma so I don’t expect them to be as comfortable as they would against a disappointing KU team, and I trust Texas to take care of the business at home. Even if that is tight, fouling should help you cover that small number in the end while Texas wins.

NCAA Basketball – Kentucky @ Alabama -6 (-110):

Early action on that spread brought the -8.5 opening number here, and I think this created a better buying opportunity for Alabama. When they missed the cover by two points on Saturday – which in my opinion can partly be explained by the fact that they are watching this game – the Tide ended an 8-0 ATS run.

This included a 20-point strike against this Kentucky team even without a point guard and the support of Leader Jahvon Quinerly. I think this Alabama team is real and the previous matchup wasn’t a fluke. Coach Nate Oats’ pro-style offense, based on 3-point volume, will continue to hold its own against a Kentucky team that finished 113th in the opposing three per game.

With that number dropping early and Kentucky is likely to be a trending public underdog, watch out for more value to come out in this number. But at the end of the day, I think we’ll see another double-digit win in Alabama. This game is on ESPN so it’s a little more fun that we can all check it out.

NBA – Knicks / Jazz Over 211 (-110):

117, 116, 109, 118, 129, 127 … These are the numbers Utah Jazz have come up with over the past six games, and they show no signs of slowing down. It was a little too widespread for me today, but I love the way this team played. I expect them to deal with the New York Knicks on the way to clipping in this case as long as the Knicks can get closer to the century.

Degenerate

NCAA Basketball – North Carolina / Pitt over 146 (-110):

Both teams were strong for much of the season, with UNC beating the Tube 9-2 in their first eleven games. But two weeks ago that trend reversed and I will continue to follow the new trend here. These teams have seen a significant increase in points allowed and scored per possession over the past three games, exceeding the last three for Pitt and the last four for UNC.

For the Panthers, it all begins with the return of a healthy Justin Champagnie after a month that ignited their offense. For the heels, in the last three games, they’ve seen a huge increase in their Effective Field Target Percentage of 5.7 percentage points, coupled with an increase in possessions per game. With these two hot offenses and the seasonal trends keeping that total easy, I’m jumping in the fast lane.

Tiny Nick has had 118-66 ATS (+49.6 units) on his locks since joining Zone Coverage.

Every day he offers his locks and degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerate are fun but riskier picks.