Castles

NBA – Wolves / Mavs Over 224 (-110): 7:30 p.m. CT on Fox Sports North

When I saw that number come out at 222, I was ready to take on whether or not Karl-Anthony Towns was playing. The Dallas Mavericks have averaged 255.6 points per game for their last three games – that’s ridiculous and no coincidence. You are very quick and you play a terrible defense.

The Minnesota Timberwolves, on the other hand, just aren’t very competitive on defense. When Towns is back it will be huge and keep that total going up, but even if he’s out I expect these two defenses to continue to allow for easy buckets on the way to a game in the 230s or higher.

This opened at 222 and seems to be rising, so get it early.

NCAA Basketball – Coppin St./Norfolk St. Via 151.5 (-110): 6:00 p.m. CT on ESPNU

That number is a bit low as we have a lot of head-to-head and aggregate data showing how good the games are for these teams. The Eagles and Spartans have played three times this season, with all three exceeding that total and an average total of 155.3 points.

Of their 17 combined conference games, neither team saw any fall below this total. It really has everything to do with the style of play at Coppin State, they play in the 2nd fast of the country and allow the 18th most points nationally. While Norfolk State doesn’t necessarily light it up offensively, their average of 1,011 points per possession and 1,145 over the last three games is more than enough to take advantage of that terrible defense and beat that number.

NBA – Kristaps Porzingis Over 20.5 points (-110): 7:30 p.m. CT on Fox Sports North

Minnesota has been really bad against opposing bigs this year, especially when KAT is out. Towns is in doubt again tonight and even if he does play, I trust Porzingis to beat that number after dwarfing them in two of his last three games, particularly against this Wolf Defense.

Degenerate

NCAA Basketball – San Jose St. @ San Diego St. -27.5 (-110): 10:00 p.m. CT on FS1

How do you get a spread of 27.5 points in a conference game? Well you have the team that ranks 32nd in defensive efficiency and the team that ranks 328th in offensive efficiency. Or you can have the team with the 342nd defensive efficiency visit the team with the 33rd offensive efficiency.

Either way you look at it, this is a massive metrics mismatch, and how both teams turned out is even more justified in bringing the Aztecs here. San Jose’s three straight wins against the bottom two teams in the MWC mask their five losses in six games against the three leaders by 27 points or more.

Given that the San Diego state’s last four games have lost an average of 31.5 points, I can’t support any of the worst teams in the country against them. Looking ahead, I expected that spread would be 30 or more, so I’ll be rolling with the Aztecs on another one-sided matter.

Tiny Nick has ATS 148-88 (+55.8 units) on his locks since joining Zone Coverage.

Every day he offers his locks and degenerate picks. Castles are the games he is sure of. Degenerate are fun but riskier picks.